Bob Carr will do his duty and save the ALP

To be honest, I'm not all that into social media. Email is OK, but it's 'old technology'. Facebook is marginally useful, but Twitter -- what does Twitter do? As far as I can work out, the News Corp hacks tune into what Rupert is putting on the airways because it's a good career move to know what's going on at HQ. But what about Shane Warne? Is anyone slightly interested in a cricketer who has passed his use by date? or Bono -- whoever he is.

But I do know what a trending topic is, and the trending topic is that Bob Carr will be Prime Minister. It's inevitable. In one of Rupert's more brilliant creations, Mx. the Melbourne afternoon giveaway -- no PA would miss an issue -- former Liberal opposition leader John Hewson said Bob Carr would replace the Ranga by the end of the year. 'Whether they go back to Rudd , and that's a big swallow with Bob Carr sitting in the wings,' Hewson told Sky News. "I wouldn't be surprised if Bob Carr wasn't prime minister by the end of the year.' (Mx 27 April 2012). I said this over a month ago.

To understand why Bob Carr will be PM, you must know two things. It is like night following day.

First, for all its faults, loyalty to the leader, etc, the ALP isn't a stupid organisation. All those marginal seat holders know with Julia in charge they are for the chopper. The ALP would lose every seat in Queensland except, perhaps, God help us, Kevin Rudd's. They know with Julia there they are stuffed, with a capital S. She has to go, and she will.    

Second, you must understand that Bob Carr is an old Labor man. When I met him at a function protesting the Victorian Charter of Rights, I told him 'I didn't think there were any Labor men like you left, Bob. He replied 'I'm the last of the tribe, mate.'

Bob Carr says he doesn't want to be prime minister.

Bob Carr is telling the truth. He doesn't want to be PM. But he will. He will be PM for the same reason Bill Hayden  quit the leadership before an election a drover's dog could have won. He will do it for the party. Bob Carr has nothing to prove, but he will save some of his mates. A drover's dog won't win the next election but Tony Abbott will - 'virtually synonymous' as my old mate John Rice would say.

Anyone saying the Ranga will lead the ALP to the next election is delusional. Like the old warhorse scenting battle, Bob Carr will saddle up for one last, epic struggle. And then he will quit politics and rest, because he's done his duty to the Party and his mates like a Labor man should.