It's the end of the road for Julia Gillard

Let's start from one of the fundamental truisms of Australian politics -- that the Labor Party is composed of professionals and the Liberal Party is composed  of suburban dilettantes and ladies who know how to hold a successful cocktail party but couldn't organise a booth if their life depended on it.

The linkages in the ALP have been described as nylon threads -- hard to see, almost impossible to break and very resilient. Often the key ALP cadres marry within the party.

ALP faction leaders take pride in taking hard decisions. They are the ultimate realists. With the vote running against them -- according to Roy Morgan the ALP is running 42.5%  to the Libs 57.5%  on a two party preferred basis.   The longer the Ranga stays in office, the worse it's going to get, and they know it. Labor is facing a  Queensland-style wipeout with Julia in charge

Another truism that the political  professionals will only confide after more than a  few beers -- for fear of retribution -- is that the pensioners are the most insatiably greedy interest group in Australian politics. Have you ever tried telling a Commonwealth public servant that one of Gough's financially suicidal policies was defined benefit pensions? Many people did tell Gough that but as is often said of the Whitlam government programs 'it seemed like a good idea at the time.'

To get to the point. The old age pensioners are going to get about $10 a fortnight on their pension from revenues raised  by the carbon tax. For a couple of payments, they'll say 'Thanks Julia'. Then they say 'we deserved it' or more likely 'so what, it's only $10.' But when they get their electricity bill, aided by the Libs propaganda, they are going to say 'Look at my electricity bill, bloody hell, I'll be living on dog food soon. It's all that carbon thing they keep talking about.' They'll all get paranoid, running around turning off lights so that they in semi darkness and every time they get an electricity bill it will be like a bulletin from Liberal  HQ about the evils of the carbon tax. The best election material ever invented to energise a core Liberal support group. And it will go on forever.

Then there's Craig Thompson. My, what as mess! Fair Work Australia delivered a 1,000 page plus report that the Director of Public Prosecutions can't act on. Could it be that Mark Arbib, well known hard man and head kicker for the NSW Right, now turned bedtime story reader for his six-year-old daughter, is mixed up  in this somewhere?

Sorry Julia, this is the end of the road. Your backbenchers aren't that dumb. Kevin's gone and so are you.