Tuesday 27 March 2012

Sex Party thumps DLP in Niddrie by-election

Niddrie is the most heavily Catholic electorate in the State of Victoria yet the Sex Party, represented by the blond bombshell Amy Myers won a thumping 8 percent of the vote while the Democratic Labor Party (DLP), represented by Michael Deverala polled only 4.7 percent. Ms Myers, a 29-year-old gold trader, may have not been heavily into policy, but the Sex Party's libertarian line -- no restrictions on drugs, slashing the regulatory burden on business and opposing reregulation of reproductive rights -- obviously proved more attractive then the DLP's pro-life stance.

Although it was not well known, the ALP's Ben Caroll, who scored just under 47 percent of the vote and jagged a 2 percent swing, is pro life. As a result, the DLP gave him their second preference. The DLP ran a good campaign and had a professionally produced pamphlet that was distributed throughout the electorate.
  
The former member for Niddrie, Rob Hulls, quit for the ostensible reason that he was in danger of dropping dead. The response in the electorate was typically 'I wish'. He was not a popular local member. As for the ALP, their response was much the same. Hulls was blamed for a set of ultra trendy policies which  many Labor people say cost them the election, such as the Koorie Courts and the Victoria's atrocious abortion legislation, which allows for unrestricted abortion right up to the moment of birth.  Hulls did not vote for the abortion legislation and it is well know that his wife told him that as far as she was concerned, a vote for abortion was a deal breaker. The fact that Caroll, who was virtually unknown in the electorate, got a 2 percent swing is an indicator of just how on the nose Hulls was.

As for the Libs, they had been trying to establish a branch structure in Niddrie, where organisation is sadly lacking. In an exercise in cowardice that will be long remembered in Melbourne's West, they refused to even run a candidate. As it was, the electorate of Niddrie was hardly jumping with enthusiasm for the ALP, with a  turnout of 83 percent and an 11 percent informal vote. The ALP had to draft in troops from outside the electorate to man the booths, an indication that the malaise in party involvement is not restricted to the Libs

Independent Andrea Surace (13%) and the Greens Josie Lester (10%) polled well but the Christian Party was a fizzer, as were the other independents. The Sex Party must feel encouraged while the faction-ridden DLP took a thumping in one of its heartland seats. Following the glimmerings of a revival with the one-off election of Peter Kavanah  as MLC for Western Victoria and John Madigan in the Senate, the DLP 'must do better', as a teacher would tell an erring student. Is the moral DLP going to be consistently outpolled by the libertarian Sex Party? If so, \why?  

  

Saturday 24 March 2012

Managing expectations for one minute

''One minute goal, one minute praisings and one minute reprimands' --- does this sound like a formula to make millions of dollars?

One of the most widely read management books ever written is 'The One Minute Manager' by Ken Blanchard and Spencer Johnson. 'Goal, praise, reprimand' is their recipe for success. Quite frankly, many intelligent people would regard 'The One Minute Manager' as an insult to their intelligence. Intellectually, there's not much to it. The best way to describe it's message is 'not too nice, not too nasty'.

I have managed a number of businesses. Like most line managers, I'm not interested in reading about management, I'm interested in getting the product out the door. Especially when the authors of such texts seem to be credulous people who have never had profit centre responsibility.

My first major assignment was managing a business information service that hadn't  made a profit in its entire existence. I noticed the so-called coffee break was lasting half an hour. The first thing I did was cut out coffee breaks, and told staff they could have a cup of coffee whenever they wanted it, as long as they had it as their desks.   A week later, one of the staff said 'It's 'Karen's' birthday tomorrow, we're going to have a cake.'  I said 'Fine, as long as you have it after work, this is private enterprise not the public service, we're not stopping work for three quarters of an hour to eat cake.' We've come here to work, not eat cake.'

Within three years, the business was making healthy profits and was sold to form the basis of a dotcom float. The business is still in existence.

I have worked as a self employed consultant, teacher and writer but my biggest assignment was as chief copy editor for the China Post in Taipei. We ran a very tight ship. One of the  idiosyncracies associated with working for a Chinese firm is that no one is ever praised.

 Newspapers have deadlines. The presses have to run, the trucks have to run, the planes have to fly, the deliverymen have to be on the street. There are only two rules in the newspaper world  -- first, you will meet the deadline, second, you will meet the deadline. With very little fat, if someone was sick, we were in trouble. When staff rang in sick, I'd ask 'How sick are you? Can you get out of bed? You got out of bed to make a phone call, didn't you? Then you're not sick, because if you can get out of bed, you're not sick.' This line of questioning only failed once. I'm afraid one minute or two minutes, in a business the only line that mattes is the bottom line.

Tony Abbott -- not quite a gentleman

Tony Abbott is very keen on exercise, so perhaps a sporting analogy is best. At once stage of my life, I was a fairly useful hockey player. My position was center half back. The centre half is the key playmaker. One should keep in mind that in hockey, each player is armed with a hefty lump of wood called a hockey stick. Hockey is -- or was -- a game for gentlemen. It has certain unwritten rules, like you don't tackle from the wrong side and you don't hit your oponent in the head with your stick. Not all teams observe these rules, just as not all players are gentlemen.

Perhaps it's just the memory of getting too many whacks from one of our perennial opponents, Trinity College, a Christian Brothers institution,I but can't help but see the Brothers' philosophy of taking a few shot cuts if they were necessary. Much as I admire the Brothers, their teams were just a little too intense and  -- dare I say it -- weren't quite gentlemen.

Now, my family is a typical Anglo-Irish family. The Orange and the Green rub along fairly well, but that does not prevent the development of some fairly strong opinions. And according to my mother, Tony Abbott is a Catholic bigot. Tony might not be a bigot but he goes in hard.Tony admits it himself (Key principles of democratic statesmanship, News Weekly, 20 Dec. 2008). Assessing  his performance after the 2007 election, he says 'Being too close to John Howard at that point in time wasn't a political advantage. But this constant message that I got was: "you're too hard line -- you turn people off."

Now, politics is a sport with rules, some written, some unwritten. Take pairs in Parliament for example. If I get a certificate saying 'medical condition' and it was Craig Thompson, I'd take it with a grain of salt. I'm not a doctor worshiper, and Craig 'has form' in regard to personal ethics. But you grant the pair. But Tony didn't until he was pushed. That's not playing the game and it's not liked.

Friday 23 March 2012

Bert Kelly, the first economic rationalist

You may think politics is about values but I can tell you from over 40 years of experience that politics is all about economics. First, you must understand  that the task of economics is the management of scarcity. There is never enough of anything to go around. Take the pensioners -- is  'enough is enough', would  they  knock back a $10 rise? What about organs -- could we get more commitments for organ donations if we sent people door to door seeking them? Of course. Are class sizes too small? Any teacher can tell you they are too large. They are never too small. For car makers, tariffs are never too high.

I am not very much in favour of the term 'economic rationalist' simply because it has pejorative connotations. I think that reason should be applied to economics,  as it should be applied to everything else. I do happily confess, however, that I am in total agreement with 'economic rationalist' policies and I always have been.

Hal Colebatch, one of Australia's finest and more versatile writers, is nearing the end of a commission to write the biography of the first economic rationalist, Bert Kelly. Bert Kelly first came to my attention as the 'Modest Member' in the Australian Financial Review. His column was witty, informative --- and rational.  Kelly held a South Australian seat for the Liberal Party. He was no fool and had been a Nuffield Scholar.

Kelly won. The tariff wall came down. A key result was that the poor people, for whom the supporters of  the quota and tariff regime professed to have such undying love, could now buy essentials like underpants and singlets for less than half their previous prices. A rare meeting of minds between the Liberal Dries and Labor rationalists, including Peter Walsh and Paul Keating, transformed Bert Kelly's principles into policy.

The trend now is to roll back thirty years of economic freedom -- everyone wants a handout. And they are getting them. Handouts are great while trade is surging and the economy is growing but when the grave train derails -- and it will -- there are going to be some very loud squeals. Very soon.

US will decapitate the Iranian leadership

Israel PM Bibi Netanyahu has a commitment for 'red lines' in US policy towards Iran. Red lines are similar to the 'line in the sand' the Nazis crossed when the Germans invaded Poland in 1939. Not a happy parallel for anyone. Bibi has been pressing Obama for a US commitment on Iran and according to all reports, Bibi doesn't like to taking no for an answer. Think of those pesky camel drivers at the Pyramids, if you've ever visited Egypt and you'll get the idea.

Chatham House rules prevent me from revealing my sources, but as far as I can tell my sources are reliable. If you don't know what Chatham House rules are, your first task it to use Google and educate yourself .

An Israeli attack on Iran would be relatively small scale, perhaps five to six targets. The US would go for 60 targets, the first strike taking out the religious leaders. If you need to know why this is important, read my blog on the Twelfth Imam. The US would mount six or more attacks, taking out every significant target in Iran, not just the nuclear facilities.  Iran would not recover for 50 years from this blasting.

What we are not likely to see is boots on the ground. Iran is bad country for infantry. It's mountainous, 3C (communications, command and control) problems abound and the American public are war weary and becoming isolationist. They are sick of seeing body bags coming home for no result (think Afghanistan) and Iran would produce mass infantry casualties. Iran is not flat desert like Iraq where armor can roar around..

It's hard to see Israel doing this by itself. They just don't have the ordinance. They have a two ton bunker busting bomb and the US have a 14 ton bomb that can penetrate 60 feet of reinforced concrete. The Israelis would have to refuel inflight (a piece of cake for the Americans). They might also need an AWACS capability.  In all, it's a very big ask for a little country, even one as gutsy as Israel.      

Bob Carr for Prime Minister

Julia is dead in the water, everyone knows it. Three out of four backbenchers in  marginal seats voted for the ranga in the last spill. They know they have as much hope of surviving the next election as a turkey has of surviving Christmas with Julia in charge. So what's  going on? Julia will be dumped, surely as night follows day. But who will replace her?

Before the spill, there were only two real choices, both from the right -- Steve Smith and Bill Shorten. You've got to feel sorry for Steve. Perhaps he didn't want to be PM, but he didn't deserve the load of dog's vomit he's been handed at Defence. Word is he got the nod that he would return to the plum Foreign Affairs portfolio if he backed her, instead he got shafted. Did any one say 'rat'?

As for Bill Shorten, I am an old AWU member and I wouldn't want an old Xavier boy as shop steward, let alone PM. And that leaves? Senator Bob Carr! Of course he'd have to find a Reps seat but that shouldn't be too hard. Jolly John Gorton did it. Did I hear anyone say Craig Thompson would be more than happy with an Head of Mission posting somewhere? Like London? Or perhaps Kim Beasley would like to come home from Washington. Then again, Consul-General in New York is a perennial favourite with retired pollies. Much better than going to jail, anyway.

Why not Bob? He's articulate, popular and led the 'Premier State' for ten years. Do you really think Mark Arbib, head kicker and hard man, fell on his sword so he could read his kids bedtime stories?

 

Wednesday 21 March 2012

Malcolm Turnbull, the best leader Labor never had

The word is that Malcolm Turnbull was tossing up whether to join the ALP or the Libs, and the coin came down Liberal. Malcolm's trouble is that he doesn't quite fit anywhere. Lots of people would like him to be the leader of the Liberal Party -- the trouble is, they wouldn't vote Liberal in a fit. It's true he holds Wentworth, a seat no other Liberal could win, for which the party is grateful. Wentworth has more Jewish voters than just about any other seat in Australia, loads of gays and other alternative lifestyle types. It's a tough seat for a Lib.

You've got to like Malcolm's style. He was brought up by a single parent -- in one of the most expensive pieces of real estate in Australia. He made a killing in the early days of the Internet age with Ozemail, enough to put him on the BRW Rich List for while. He's not megawealthy, but then he doesn't sue his kids or join the nutters who say the CIA --- along with Rockefellers, always popular with the fruit loops -- is trying to destroy our coal industry. He's has that investment banker sheen that stockbrokers covet. Definitely not typical Labor material, but then again nor were Gough Whitlam or 'Doc' Evatt.

But progressive? You want progressive? Malcolm's progessive, all the way from gay marriage to sovereign wealth funds. He wants a conscience vote for Liberals on gay marriage, which is against the policy the Libs took to the election. He wants another sovereign wealth fund. We already have one, with $77 billion in assets, ready to pay for one of Gough Whitlam's greatest follies, defined benefit pensions for public servants.
Malcolm just doesn't fit anywhere. And the people who want him to be Top Liberal are ALP voters.

Why we should worry about the Twelfth Imam

Islam is split into two broad streams, as you probably know. The majority stream are the Sunnis, dominated by the Saudis, who have a lot of money to spend on promoting such things. The minority stream are the Shias, who are led by the Iranians or as they often prefer to be known, the Persians. Shia means 'partisans (or followers) of Ali'. Hussain bin Ali was the grandson of the Prophet Mahomad, his mother was the Prophet's daughter Fatima. He is known as the Imam Hussain. Imam Hussain was killed in battle at Kerbala, now situated  in modern day Iraq. You've probably heard of it, it is a major pilgrimage site. The day of remembrance for Hussainj's death is called Asura. Hussain's line ended with the Twelfth Imam. He is now technically in occulation, meaning he is hidden.

What the Iranians are waiting for is the return of the Twelfth Imam, an event which will be similar to the Christian End of Days. What's freaky -- and not a little disturbing to those of us who have read Norman Cohn's magisterial history of similar Christian messianic movements in the Middle Ages, 'The Pursuit of the Millennium' -- is that the ayatollahs claim that they have been talking to the Twelfth Imam.

Where this  may lead can be gathered by the fact that the Anglo-Sudan War in the late nineteenth century was inspired by a man who claimed to be the Mahdi -- another name for the Twelfth Imam. His followers carried amulets that supposedly made them immune to bullets, an illusion that the British Martini Henrys soon dispelled. But that wasn't before they killed off 'Chinese' Gordon, one of the Victorian Age's greatest sons.

The Persians, of course, regard the Arabs as savages fresh out of the desert, while they are the inheritors of  a civilization that goes back for millennia. For all that, these millenarian fantasies make me feel distinctly queasy. After all, a nuke is much more effective and harder to counter than an amulet.

Tuesday 20 March 2012

John Howard, Australia's most successful socialist

I have been observing the United States for many years. Unlike most people who pontificate about America, I have actually studied American politics and history, in my case under Professor Patrick O'Brien at the University of Western Australia. I have also visited the US. When Americans ask me about the Australian equivalent of the Republican Party I say -- this person disarmed the citizenry and wore a flak jacket when her addressed his own people; he brought in the biggest new tax in Australia's history; he bribed the middle class electorate with more welfare payments than any other administration; and he paved the way for the carbon tax.Who was this person? No prizes for guessing it was John Howard, the most successful socialist in Australia's history. So I say to my American friends 'There is no equivalent to the Republican Party in Australia, just two centre left parties which would fit quite comfortably in the Democratic Party.'

 In some ways I admire John Howard. He showed almost unbelievable self belief during  his wilderness years and he ran a government that, if socialist, was relatively clean. Peter Costello deserves more credit than he was given for keeping free spending ministers at bay and thereby keeping  the Budget in surplus. He probably wasn't as terrifyingly parsimonious at Peter Walsh and he deserved a shot at leading the party. John Howard wouldn't go when his backers urged him to go, and the Libs might have won in a close fought poll if Costello had been at the helm  but that's all history. \Liberal PMs promise so much and deliver so little

Tony Abbott has the economic brain of a woodlice

Tony Abbott doesn't try to disguise the fact that he doesn't know much about economics. Sorry Tony, politics these days is all about economics. Whatever he studied at Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar, it wasn't economics. The Coalition economic policy is sheer fantasy -- roll back taxes like the mining tax, the carbon tax and just about everything  else then add a variety of new programs plus tax cuts for individuals and companies, not to forget free dentistry and female executives getting $75,000 a year while they  pop out a baby before handing it over to an au pair.

There is a way to do it - abolish Health and Education and hand back the functions to the States, where they were before Jolly John Gorton was set loose on the Budget, and where they should be now. As for the bipartisan push for handicapped 'insurance' I'll leave that for another day. Tony, you may remember this because you were part of the government, there's this thing called the GST -- the Goods and Services Tax. Very few people were deluded enough to think that the people who were supposed to get it -- namely the States  -- would get it without the Feds putting their grubby finger marks all over it. And who's dishing it out now, equalisation payments and all? The Treasury!

Tony, I think you're beyond saving. The Packers gave you a job on the Bulletin, which Kerry notoriously used to peddle influence, you wrote some leaders for the Oz. People just don't like you. Unless you fall head first off your bike speeding down the Bulli Pass you'll probably be PM one day, but you'll be even worse than Malcolm Fraser. At least he did nothing. You'll probably have the urge to do 'something' and that's much worse than doing 'nothing'.

Defence, graveyard of careers

One only had to look at Steve Smith's face on Monday to realise he had just had a big, steaming pile of excreta dumped into his lap. When the report on 'Kate's' mistreatment at ADFA finally emerged, Steve didn't want be anywhere near it.. Afghanistan is said to be the graveyard of empires, as everyone from Alexander the Great to the Soviets found out. Well, now Stephen Smith is finding out why Defence is the graveyard of careers. On Friday, you can imagine thinking  'Thank God I backed Julia instead of flipping to Kevin Rudd. On Monday I'll be back at DFAT, where the biggest threat is from cirrhosis of the liver due to the \fine wines I'll be consuming at all the national days I'll be attending.' What happens? Bob Carr is parachuted in and promptly pisses off our closest neighbor by saying we will impose sanctions on Papua New Guinea if they don't hold their elections on time. Hello, Bob! Sanctions are the  things we impose on naughty people like the Iranians, who are building nukes, not our friends and allies. As for ADFA -- why did we ever get rid of Duntroon? What parent would want their daughter going to ADFA if some ill mannered lout films her in an intimate situation so he can amuse his mates? Sorry, officers don't do that sort of thing. Get rid of the lot of them, they don't deserve to wear our uniform. As for the armed forces being unhappy with Smith, haven't they heard of the chain of command? Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die?

Friday 9 March 2012

Steve Smith looks pissed off

Stephen Smith was looking very, very pissed off the last time I saw him on TV and who can blame him? He took one for the team when he took on Defence, the worst portfolio in the government, to allow Kevin Rudd to be eased into his dream portio, Foreign Affars (I'll leave out Trade -- Kevin didn't care about Trade, too busy bombing Libya and so on).

The word is Steve was going to dump Julia and come out for Kevin, on the understanding he woruld get his old portfolio, DFAT, back again. He stayed loyal, unlike another talented minister, Martin Fesrgson.

Instead, Bob Carr is parachuted in after after Mark Arbib decided had to read his kids more bedtime stories, wthout Bob having even one hour's experience at Federal level. What's more, Steve has the whole ADFA sex scandal mess dumped in his lap. Have Australian officers ever really been gentlemen? I think not. Oh dear! Will Steve be backing Julkia next time around? Would you? Julia is going get dumped two months' out from the next election and the betting is one of the knives in her back is going to Steve's.