Israel PM Bibi Netanyahu has a commitment for 'red lines' in US policy towards Iran. Red lines are similar to the 'line in the sand' the Nazis crossed when the Germans invaded Poland in 1939. Not a happy parallel for anyone. Bibi has been pressing Obama for a US commitment on Iran and according to all reports, Bibi doesn't like to taking no for an answer. Think of those pesky camel drivers at the Pyramids, if you've ever visited Egypt and you'll get the idea.
Chatham House rules prevent me from revealing my sources, but as far as I can tell my sources are reliable. If you don't know what Chatham House rules are, your first task it to use Google and educate yourself .
An Israeli attack on Iran would be relatively small scale, perhaps five to six targets. The US would go for 60 targets, the first strike taking out the religious leaders. If you need to know why this is important, read my blog on the Twelfth Imam. The US would mount six or more attacks, taking out every significant target in Iran, not just the nuclear facilities. Iran would not recover for 50 years from this blasting.
What we are not likely to see is boots on the ground. Iran is bad country for infantry. It's mountainous, 3C (communications, command and control) problems abound and the American public are war weary and becoming isolationist. They are sick of seeing body bags coming home for no result (think Afghanistan) and Iran would produce mass infantry casualties. Iran is not flat desert like Iraq where armor can roar around..
It's hard to see Israel doing this by itself. They just don't have the ordinance. They have a two ton bunker busting bomb and the US have a 14 ton bomb that can penetrate 60 feet of reinforced concrete. The Israelis would have to refuel inflight (a piece of cake for the Americans). They might also need an AWACS capability. In all, it's a very big ask for a little country, even one as gutsy as Israel.
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