Julia is dead in the water, everyone knows it. Three out of four backbenchers in marginal seats voted for the ranga in the last spill. They know they have as much hope of surviving the next election as a turkey has of surviving Christmas with Julia in charge. So what's going on? Julia will be dumped, surely as night follows day. But who will replace her?
Before the spill, there were only two real choices, both from the right -- Steve Smith and Bill Shorten. You've got to feel sorry for Steve. Perhaps he didn't want to be PM, but he didn't deserve the load of dog's vomit he's been handed at Defence. Word is he got the nod that he would return to the plum Foreign Affairs portfolio if he backed her, instead he got shafted. Did any one say 'rat'?
As for Bill Shorten, I am an old AWU member and I wouldn't want an old Xavier boy as shop steward, let alone PM. And that leaves? Senator Bob Carr! Of course he'd have to find a Reps seat but that shouldn't be too hard. Jolly John Gorton did it. Did I hear anyone say Craig Thompson would be more than happy with an Head of Mission posting somewhere? Like London? Or perhaps Kim Beasley would like to come home from Washington. Then again, Consul-General in New York is a perennial favourite with retired pollies. Much better than going to jail, anyway.
Why not Bob? He's articulate, popular and led the 'Premier State' for ten years. Do you really think Mark Arbib, head kicker and hard man, fell on his sword so he could read his kids bedtime stories?
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