ALP edges Greens in Melbourne by-election

At Ground Zero for the by-election in the Victorian state seat of Melbourne, it soon became evident that no-one wanted the Greens to win, with the possible exception of Stephen Mayne. The poll, held in pleasant weather on Saturday 21 July 2012, pitted the Greens against the rest. The Greens were marginally ahead on the primary vote -- the Greens Cathy Oke with 36.37 percent shaded the ALP's Jennifer Kanis with 33.32 percent. All candidates who were likely to make a difference, apart from Mayne, were preferencing the ALP. Family First candidate Ashley Fenn summed up the mood when he said 'The Labor Party is far from perfect, but they are better than the Greens.'

Stephen Mayne, standing as an independent, did surprisingly well with 4.75 percent of the vote. Mayne, a serial do gooder who is related to the founders of the once great and now extinct transport giant Mayne Nickless, is a former Liberal staffer who seems to have branched out into other areas. Mayne, who claims to have spent an abstemious $2,000 on his campaign, has made no secret that his major ambition is to gain election to the Melbourne City Council. Mayne is now serving on the Manningham City Council, where he is reportedly not popular. Scuttlebutt on election day was that Mayne had done a deal to support the Greens in return for their support in his run for the Melbourne City Council. His bare bones campaign was due to necessity rather than thrift, as he is living on his council stipend and not much else, sources say.

The ALP had done their preparation professionally and got a very strong postal vote, well aware that postal votes have decided many a close election. David Notle, a well known Liberal who has a pharmacy in North Carlton, was marketed as a 'Liberal leaning candidate.' According to the 'Mayne Report', Nolte spent $30,000 on his campaign and his 4.70 percent of the vote flowed 80 percent to the ALP. The Sex Party garnered 6.61 percent of the primary vote, the third highest number of primary votes after the Greens and the  ALP. Fiona Patten, a fiftyish political lobbyist and small business owner ran an energetic campaign for the Sex Party, who seem to be an emerging force in Australian politics. They are accumulating some serious bargaining chips. The Democratic Labor Party (DLP) scored only 1.91 percent of the vote despite a strong effort in an electorate not suited to their style of politics. Their preferences flowed strongly to Labor.

Despite the Fairfax press predicting a win for the Greens -- a case of wishful thinking -- it was soon clear on polling day that everyone -- apart from Mayne -- was backing the ALP. Given a normal flow of preferences, it was soon evident that Jennifer Kanis would win fairly well. In the end, the two party preferred vote saw the ALP's Jennifer Kanis score 13,988 to the Greens Cathy Oke's 13,234 at close of counting on Saturday.

In the end, while the election must have caused some nail biting in the ALP camp -- not least by Prime Minister Julia Gillard -- the ALP won a comfortable victory. Once again, the professionals wiped the floor with the amateurs.

 A note on working on a booth. Most people working on booths get along well. After all, they are interested in politics and  most other people aren't. Even with representatives from 16 different candidates attempting to thrust their how-to-vote card into the hand of the approaching voter, as in the Melbourne poll, the booth workers rub along pretty well.

Stephen Mayne may live to regret his preference deal. The Labor Party has a notoriously long memory and the Greens won't have much patronage to hand around, making his bid for the Melbourne City Council that much more difficult.