Niddrie is the most heavily Catholic electorate in the State of Victoria yet the Sex Party, represented by the blond bombshell Amy Myers won a thumping 8 percent of the vote while the Democratic Labor Party (DLP), represented by Michael Deverala polled only 4.7 percent. Ms Myers, a 29-year-old gold trader, may have not been heavily into policy, but the Sex Party's libertarian line -- no restrictions on drugs, slashing the regulatory burden on business and opposing reregulation of reproductive rights -- obviously proved more attractive then the DLP's pro-life stance.
Although it was not well known, the ALP's Ben Caroll, who scored just under 47 percent of the vote and jagged a 2 percent swing, is pro life. As a result, the DLP gave him their second preference. The DLP ran a good campaign and had a professionally produced pamphlet that was distributed throughout the electorate.
The former member for Niddrie, Rob Hulls, quit for the ostensible reason that he was in danger of dropping dead. The response in the electorate was typically 'I wish'. He was not a popular local member. As for the ALP, their response was much the same. Hulls was blamed for a set of ultra trendy policies which many Labor people say cost them the election, such as the Koorie Courts and the Victoria's atrocious abortion legislation, which allows for unrestricted abortion right up to the moment of birth. Hulls did not vote for the abortion legislation and it is well know that his wife told him that as far as she was concerned, a vote for abortion was a deal breaker. The fact that Caroll, who was virtually unknown in the electorate, got a 2 percent swing is an indicator of just how on the nose Hulls was.
As for the Libs, they had been trying to establish a branch structure in Niddrie, where organisation is sadly lacking. In an exercise in cowardice that will be long remembered in Melbourne's West, they refused to even run a candidate. As it was, the electorate of Niddrie was hardly jumping with enthusiasm for the ALP, with a turnout of 83 percent and an 11 percent informal vote. The ALP had to draft in troops from outside the electorate to man the booths, an indication that the malaise in party involvement is not restricted to the Libs
Independent Andrea Surace (13%) and the Greens Josie Lester (10%) polled well but the Christian Party was a fizzer, as were the other independents. The Sex Party must feel encouraged while the faction-ridden DLP took a thumping in one of its heartland seats. Following the glimmerings of a revival with the one-off election of Peter Kavanah as MLC for Western Victoria and John Madigan in the Senate, the DLP 'must do better', as a teacher would tell an erring student. Is the moral DLP going to be consistently outpolled by the libertarian Sex Party? If so, \why?
Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Saturday, 24 March 2012
Managing expectations for one minute
''One minute goal, one minute praisings and one minute reprimands' --- does this sound like a formula to make millions of dollars?
One of the most widely read management books ever written is 'The One Minute Manager' by Ken Blanchard and Spencer Johnson. 'Goal, praise, reprimand' is their recipe for success. Quite frankly, many intelligent people would regard 'The One Minute Manager' as an insult to their intelligence. Intellectually, there's not much to it. The best way to describe it's message is 'not too nice, not too nasty'.
I have managed a number of businesses. Like most line managers, I'm not interested in reading about management, I'm interested in getting the product out the door. Especially when the authors of such texts seem to be credulous people who have never had profit centre responsibility.
My first major assignment was managing a business information service that hadn't made a profit in its entire existence. I noticed the so-called coffee break was lasting half an hour. The first thing I did was cut out coffee breaks, and told staff they could have a cup of coffee whenever they wanted it, as long as they had it as their desks. A week later, one of the staff said 'It's 'Karen's' birthday tomorrow, we're going to have a cake.' I said 'Fine, as long as you have it after work, this is private enterprise not the public service, we're not stopping work for three quarters of an hour to eat cake.' We've come here to work, not eat cake.'
Within three years, the business was making healthy profits and was sold to form the basis of a dotcom float. The business is still in existence.
I have worked as a self employed consultant, teacher and writer but my biggest assignment was as chief copy editor for the China Post in Taipei. We ran a very tight ship. One of the idiosyncracies associated with working for a Chinese firm is that no one is ever praised.
Newspapers have deadlines. The presses have to run, the trucks have to run, the planes have to fly, the deliverymen have to be on the street. There are only two rules in the newspaper world -- first, you will meet the deadline, second, you will meet the deadline. With very little fat, if someone was sick, we were in trouble. When staff rang in sick, I'd ask 'How sick are you? Can you get out of bed? You got out of bed to make a phone call, didn't you? Then you're not sick, because if you can get out of bed, you're not sick.' This line of questioning only failed once. I'm afraid one minute or two minutes, in a business the only line that mattes is the bottom line.
One of the most widely read management books ever written is 'The One Minute Manager' by Ken Blanchard and Spencer Johnson. 'Goal, praise, reprimand' is their recipe for success. Quite frankly, many intelligent people would regard 'The One Minute Manager' as an insult to their intelligence. Intellectually, there's not much to it. The best way to describe it's message is 'not too nice, not too nasty'.
I have managed a number of businesses. Like most line managers, I'm not interested in reading about management, I'm interested in getting the product out the door. Especially when the authors of such texts seem to be credulous people who have never had profit centre responsibility.
My first major assignment was managing a business information service that hadn't made a profit in its entire existence. I noticed the so-called coffee break was lasting half an hour. The first thing I did was cut out coffee breaks, and told staff they could have a cup of coffee whenever they wanted it, as long as they had it as their desks. A week later, one of the staff said 'It's 'Karen's' birthday tomorrow, we're going to have a cake.' I said 'Fine, as long as you have it after work, this is private enterprise not the public service, we're not stopping work for three quarters of an hour to eat cake.' We've come here to work, not eat cake.'
Within three years, the business was making healthy profits and was sold to form the basis of a dotcom float. The business is still in existence.
I have worked as a self employed consultant, teacher and writer but my biggest assignment was as chief copy editor for the China Post in Taipei. We ran a very tight ship. One of the idiosyncracies associated with working for a Chinese firm is that no one is ever praised.
Newspapers have deadlines. The presses have to run, the trucks have to run, the planes have to fly, the deliverymen have to be on the street. There are only two rules in the newspaper world -- first, you will meet the deadline, second, you will meet the deadline. With very little fat, if someone was sick, we were in trouble. When staff rang in sick, I'd ask 'How sick are you? Can you get out of bed? You got out of bed to make a phone call, didn't you? Then you're not sick, because if you can get out of bed, you're not sick.' This line of questioning only failed once. I'm afraid one minute or two minutes, in a business the only line that mattes is the bottom line.
Tony Abbott -- not quite a gentleman
Tony Abbott is very keen on exercise, so perhaps a sporting analogy is best. At once stage of my life, I was a fairly useful hockey player. My position was center half back. The centre half is the key playmaker. One should keep in mind that in hockey, each player is armed with a hefty lump of wood called a hockey stick. Hockey is -- or was -- a game for gentlemen. It has certain unwritten rules, like you don't tackle from the wrong side and you don't hit your oponent in the head with your stick. Not all teams observe these rules, just as not all players are gentlemen.
Perhaps it's just the memory of getting too many whacks from one of our perennial opponents, Trinity College, a Christian Brothers institution,I but can't help but see the Brothers' philosophy of taking a few shot cuts if they were necessary. Much as I admire the Brothers, their teams were just a little too intense and -- dare I say it -- weren't quite gentlemen.
Now, my family is a typical Anglo-Irish family. The Orange and the Green rub along fairly well, but that does not prevent the development of some fairly strong opinions. And according to my mother, Tony Abbott is a Catholic bigot. Tony might not be a bigot but he goes in hard.Tony admits it himself (Key principles of democratic statesmanship, News Weekly, 20 Dec. 2008). Assessing his performance after the 2007 election, he says 'Being too close to John Howard at that point in time wasn't a political advantage. But this constant message that I got was: "you're too hard line -- you turn people off."
Now, politics is a sport with rules, some written, some unwritten. Take pairs in Parliament for example. If I get a certificate saying 'medical condition' and it was Craig Thompson, I'd take it with a grain of salt. I'm not a doctor worshiper, and Craig 'has form' in regard to personal ethics. But you grant the pair. But Tony didn't until he was pushed. That's not playing the game and it's not liked.
Perhaps it's just the memory of getting too many whacks from one of our perennial opponents, Trinity College, a Christian Brothers institution,I but can't help but see the Brothers' philosophy of taking a few shot cuts if they were necessary. Much as I admire the Brothers, their teams were just a little too intense and -- dare I say it -- weren't quite gentlemen.
Now, my family is a typical Anglo-Irish family. The Orange and the Green rub along fairly well, but that does not prevent the development of some fairly strong opinions. And according to my mother, Tony Abbott is a Catholic bigot. Tony might not be a bigot but he goes in hard.Tony admits it himself (Key principles of democratic statesmanship, News Weekly, 20 Dec. 2008). Assessing his performance after the 2007 election, he says 'Being too close to John Howard at that point in time wasn't a political advantage. But this constant message that I got was: "you're too hard line -- you turn people off."
Now, politics is a sport with rules, some written, some unwritten. Take pairs in Parliament for example. If I get a certificate saying 'medical condition' and it was Craig Thompson, I'd take it with a grain of salt. I'm not a doctor worshiper, and Craig 'has form' in regard to personal ethics. But you grant the pair. But Tony didn't until he was pushed. That's not playing the game and it's not liked.
Friday, 23 March 2012
Bert Kelly, the first economic rationalist
You may think politics is about values but I can tell you from over 40 years of experience that politics is all about economics. First, you must understand that the task of economics is the management of scarcity. There is never enough of anything to go around. Take the pensioners -- is 'enough is enough', would they knock back a $10 rise? What about organs -- could we get more commitments for organ donations if we sent people door to door seeking them? Of course. Are class sizes too small? Any teacher can tell you they are too large. They are never too small. For car makers, tariffs are never too high.
I am not very much in favour of the term 'economic rationalist' simply because it has pejorative connotations. I think that reason should be applied to economics, as it should be applied to everything else. I do happily confess, however, that I am in total agreement with 'economic rationalist' policies and I always have been.
Hal Colebatch, one of Australia's finest and more versatile writers, is nearing the end of a commission to write the biography of the first economic rationalist, Bert Kelly. Bert Kelly first came to my attention as the 'Modest Member' in the Australian Financial Review. His column was witty, informative --- and rational. Kelly held a South Australian seat for the Liberal Party. He was no fool and had been a Nuffield Scholar.
Kelly won. The tariff wall came down. A key result was that the poor people, for whom the supporters of the quota and tariff regime professed to have such undying love, could now buy essentials like underpants and singlets for less than half their previous prices. A rare meeting of minds between the Liberal Dries and Labor rationalists, including Peter Walsh and Paul Keating, transformed Bert Kelly's principles into policy.
The trend now is to roll back thirty years of economic freedom -- everyone wants a handout. And they are getting them. Handouts are great while trade is surging and the economy is growing but when the grave train derails -- and it will -- there are going to be some very loud squeals. Very soon.
I am not very much in favour of the term 'economic rationalist' simply because it has pejorative connotations. I think that reason should be applied to economics, as it should be applied to everything else. I do happily confess, however, that I am in total agreement with 'economic rationalist' policies and I always have been.
Hal Colebatch, one of Australia's finest and more versatile writers, is nearing the end of a commission to write the biography of the first economic rationalist, Bert Kelly. Bert Kelly first came to my attention as the 'Modest Member' in the Australian Financial Review. His column was witty, informative --- and rational. Kelly held a South Australian seat for the Liberal Party. He was no fool and had been a Nuffield Scholar.
Kelly won. The tariff wall came down. A key result was that the poor people, for whom the supporters of the quota and tariff regime professed to have such undying love, could now buy essentials like underpants and singlets for less than half their previous prices. A rare meeting of minds between the Liberal Dries and Labor rationalists, including Peter Walsh and Paul Keating, transformed Bert Kelly's principles into policy.
The trend now is to roll back thirty years of economic freedom -- everyone wants a handout. And they are getting them. Handouts are great while trade is surging and the economy is growing but when the grave train derails -- and it will -- there are going to be some very loud squeals. Very soon.
US will decapitate the Iranian leadership
Israel PM Bibi Netanyahu has a commitment for 'red lines' in US policy towards Iran. Red lines are similar to the 'line in the sand' the Nazis crossed when the Germans invaded Poland in 1939. Not a happy parallel for anyone. Bibi has been pressing Obama for a US commitment on Iran and according to all reports, Bibi doesn't like to taking no for an answer. Think of those pesky camel drivers at the Pyramids, if you've ever visited Egypt and you'll get the idea.
Chatham House rules prevent me from revealing my sources, but as far as I can tell my sources are reliable. If you don't know what Chatham House rules are, your first task it to use Google and educate yourself .
An Israeli attack on Iran would be relatively small scale, perhaps five to six targets. The US would go for 60 targets, the first strike taking out the religious leaders. If you need to know why this is important, read my blog on the Twelfth Imam. The US would mount six or more attacks, taking out every significant target in Iran, not just the nuclear facilities. Iran would not recover for 50 years from this blasting.
What we are not likely to see is boots on the ground. Iran is bad country for infantry. It's mountainous, 3C (communications, command and control) problems abound and the American public are war weary and becoming isolationist. They are sick of seeing body bags coming home for no result (think Afghanistan) and Iran would produce mass infantry casualties. Iran is not flat desert like Iraq where armor can roar around..
It's hard to see Israel doing this by itself. They just don't have the ordinance. They have a two ton bunker busting bomb and the US have a 14 ton bomb that can penetrate 60 feet of reinforced concrete. The Israelis would have to refuel inflight (a piece of cake for the Americans). They might also need an AWACS capability. In all, it's a very big ask for a little country, even one as gutsy as Israel.
Chatham House rules prevent me from revealing my sources, but as far as I can tell my sources are reliable. If you don't know what Chatham House rules are, your first task it to use Google and educate yourself .
An Israeli attack on Iran would be relatively small scale, perhaps five to six targets. The US would go for 60 targets, the first strike taking out the religious leaders. If you need to know why this is important, read my blog on the Twelfth Imam. The US would mount six or more attacks, taking out every significant target in Iran, not just the nuclear facilities. Iran would not recover for 50 years from this blasting.
What we are not likely to see is boots on the ground. Iran is bad country for infantry. It's mountainous, 3C (communications, command and control) problems abound and the American public are war weary and becoming isolationist. They are sick of seeing body bags coming home for no result (think Afghanistan) and Iran would produce mass infantry casualties. Iran is not flat desert like Iraq where armor can roar around..
It's hard to see Israel doing this by itself. They just don't have the ordinance. They have a two ton bunker busting bomb and the US have a 14 ton bomb that can penetrate 60 feet of reinforced concrete. The Israelis would have to refuel inflight (a piece of cake for the Americans). They might also need an AWACS capability. In all, it's a very big ask for a little country, even one as gutsy as Israel.
Bob Carr for Prime Minister
Julia is dead in the water, everyone knows it. Three out of four backbenchers in marginal seats voted for the ranga in the last spill. They know they have as much hope of surviving the next election as a turkey has of surviving Christmas with Julia in charge. So what's going on? Julia will be dumped, surely as night follows day. But who will replace her?
Before the spill, there were only two real choices, both from the right -- Steve Smith and Bill Shorten. You've got to feel sorry for Steve. Perhaps he didn't want to be PM, but he didn't deserve the load of dog's vomit he's been handed at Defence. Word is he got the nod that he would return to the plum Foreign Affairs portfolio if he backed her, instead he got shafted. Did any one say 'rat'?
As for Bill Shorten, I am an old AWU member and I wouldn't want an old Xavier boy as shop steward, let alone PM. And that leaves? Senator Bob Carr! Of course he'd have to find a Reps seat but that shouldn't be too hard. Jolly John Gorton did it. Did I hear anyone say Craig Thompson would be more than happy with an Head of Mission posting somewhere? Like London? Or perhaps Kim Beasley would like to come home from Washington. Then again, Consul-General in New York is a perennial favourite with retired pollies. Much better than going to jail, anyway.
Why not Bob? He's articulate, popular and led the 'Premier State' for ten years. Do you really think Mark Arbib, head kicker and hard man, fell on his sword so he could read his kids bedtime stories?
Before the spill, there were only two real choices, both from the right -- Steve Smith and Bill Shorten. You've got to feel sorry for Steve. Perhaps he didn't want to be PM, but he didn't deserve the load of dog's vomit he's been handed at Defence. Word is he got the nod that he would return to the plum Foreign Affairs portfolio if he backed her, instead he got shafted. Did any one say 'rat'?
As for Bill Shorten, I am an old AWU member and I wouldn't want an old Xavier boy as shop steward, let alone PM. And that leaves? Senator Bob Carr! Of course he'd have to find a Reps seat but that shouldn't be too hard. Jolly John Gorton did it. Did I hear anyone say Craig Thompson would be more than happy with an Head of Mission posting somewhere? Like London? Or perhaps Kim Beasley would like to come home from Washington. Then again, Consul-General in New York is a perennial favourite with retired pollies. Much better than going to jail, anyway.
Why not Bob? He's articulate, popular and led the 'Premier State' for ten years. Do you really think Mark Arbib, head kicker and hard man, fell on his sword so he could read his kids bedtime stories?
Wednesday, 21 March 2012
Malcolm Turnbull, the best leader Labor never had
The word is that Malcolm Turnbull was tossing up whether to join the ALP or the Libs, and the coin came down Liberal. Malcolm's trouble is that he doesn't quite fit anywhere. Lots of people would like him to be the leader of the Liberal Party -- the trouble is, they wouldn't vote Liberal in a fit. It's true he holds Wentworth, a seat no other Liberal could win, for which the party is grateful. Wentworth has more Jewish voters than just about any other seat in Australia, loads of gays and other alternative lifestyle types. It's a tough seat for a Lib.
You've got to like Malcolm's style. He was brought up by a single parent -- in one of the most expensive pieces of real estate in Australia. He made a killing in the early days of the Internet age with Ozemail, enough to put him on the BRW Rich List for while. He's not megawealthy, but then he doesn't sue his kids or join the nutters who say the CIA --- along with Rockefellers, always popular with the fruit loops -- is trying to destroy our coal industry. He's has that investment banker sheen that stockbrokers covet. Definitely not typical Labor material, but then again nor were Gough Whitlam or 'Doc' Evatt.
But progressive? You want progressive? Malcolm's progessive, all the way from gay marriage to sovereign wealth funds. He wants a conscience vote for Liberals on gay marriage, which is against the policy the Libs took to the election. He wants another sovereign wealth fund. We already have one, with $77 billion in assets, ready to pay for one of Gough Whitlam's greatest follies, defined benefit pensions for public servants.
Malcolm just doesn't fit anywhere. And the people who want him to be Top Liberal are ALP voters.
You've got to like Malcolm's style. He was brought up by a single parent -- in one of the most expensive pieces of real estate in Australia. He made a killing in the early days of the Internet age with Ozemail, enough to put him on the BRW Rich List for while. He's not megawealthy, but then he doesn't sue his kids or join the nutters who say the CIA --- along with Rockefellers, always popular with the fruit loops -- is trying to destroy our coal industry. He's has that investment banker sheen that stockbrokers covet. Definitely not typical Labor material, but then again nor were Gough Whitlam or 'Doc' Evatt.
But progressive? You want progressive? Malcolm's progessive, all the way from gay marriage to sovereign wealth funds. He wants a conscience vote for Liberals on gay marriage, which is against the policy the Libs took to the election. He wants another sovereign wealth fund. We already have one, with $77 billion in assets, ready to pay for one of Gough Whitlam's greatest follies, defined benefit pensions for public servants.
Malcolm just doesn't fit anywhere. And the people who want him to be Top Liberal are ALP voters.
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